We Await the 11 AM S/D & Stocks Reports

Good morning. Report day has arrived. Grains and soybeans are incurring small losses this morning as we await the 11 AM S/D and quarterly stocks reports. The Dollar is weaker. Otherwise fresh news is scarce. South American weather forecasts look similar to those of the past few days. Analysts seem confident that Brazil will produce a record crop but are increasingly concerned that wet weather has significantly cut Argentine soybean potential. The U.S. southern plains dryness will be largely alleviated by the end of next week if weather forecasts are correct (see map below). The weekly export sales report at 7:30 this morning is expected to include corn sales near 26 million bu., soybeans near 24 million bu., and about 12 million bu. of wheat. Commodity funds were net sellers of corn and wheat yesterday and were about even in soybean trading. They are currently estimated to be short 92,000 corn contracts, short 104,000 Chicago wheat , and long 101,000 soybean contracts. In the just in case department: price limits are currently 25 cents for corn, 70 cents for soybeans, and 30 cents wheat.


USDA Production Estimates:

Avg of Analysts’ Est
Range of Analysts’ Est
USDA Nov 16/17 Est
CornProduction
15.196
14.999 – 15.320
15.226
Corn Yield
175.1
172.3 – 176.5
175.3
Harvested Area
86.747
85.514 – 88.231
86.836
Soybean Production
4.374
4.262 – 4.440
4.361
Soybean Yield
52.7
51.6 – 53.5
52.5
Soybean Production
83.013
82.500 – 83.400
83.047

 


 

USDA 2016/17 Ending Stocks Projections (Billion Bu.):

Avg of Analysts’ Est
Range of Analysts’ Est
USDA Dec 16/17 Est
Corn
2.385
2.206 – 2.800
2.403
Soybeans
0.468
0.407 – 0.510
0.480
Wheat
1.148
1.113 – 1.340
1.143

 


 




Hugh Whalen|Commodity Risk Consultant | MID-CO COMMODITIES, INC.| Ph: 309-557-6010 | Fx: 309-828-2822| hwhalen@mid-co.com

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